• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jarring January

it did feel like spring here today and a lot of humidity... we even had tornado warnings to go with lol

such a drastic change from a few days ago
 
These run-to-run changes on the NAM in Minneapolis are insane, the difference between 1-2 feet of snow or more and nothing at all in Minneapolis-St. Paul. As we often observe here in the SE US & east coast, a last second NW adjustment of the precipitation shield NW of the main surface cyclone could lead to a crippling storm in the MSP metro area. You can certainly learn a few things about winter weather in the SE US by observing how major winter storms like this unfold even if they're occurring over a thousand miles away. In some cases, it can allow you to potentially decipher certain biases and tendencies within NWP models as a regional or fundamental problem in the model. If other storms in general observe a similar last minute NW trend over the midwest, Great Lakes, etc. it certainly would suggest there is something fundamentally wrong in NWP models wrt failure to capture the northwesterly extent of precipitation NW of a parent cyclone and that this issue is probably not exclusive to our region of the US and east coast cyclogenesis events.
output_hWtAZs.gif
 
Last edited:
Lol this looks familiar, how many times have we seen this planetary wave configuration since 2012-13 and in those cases most NWP models completely botched the intensity of the ACWB event over the North Pacific (including the current one over the Bering Sea and NE Eurasia). Winter is likely far from over, we're one good storm away from taking this winter to the upper echelon of years, even against seemingly ancient winters of the early-mid 20th century & late 19th century which were under a significantly cooler (& more favorable) background climate for cold/snow in the SE US.
eps_z500a_nh_61.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol this looks familiar, how many times have we seen this planetary wave configuration since 2012-13 and in those cases most NWP models completely botched the intensity of the ACWB event over the North Pacific (including the current one over the Bering Sea and NE Eurasia). Winter is likely far from over, we're one good storm away from taking this winter to the upper echelon of years, even against seemingly ancient winters of the early-mid 20th century & late 19th century which were under a significantly cooler (& more favorable) background climate for cold/snow in the SE US.
View attachment 3388
Click to expand...

The long range EPS is essentially a blend of January 2014 & February 2015.
fgGZ5bSE7K.png
Kocl7Z2uBp.png
 
tractor girl said:
Webber, generally how reliable are long range EPS models?
Click to expand...

The models tend to perform better in cases like this where there's a very robust and coherent MJO pulse in the eastern hemisphere, this large-scale circulation response is consistent w/ what you'd expect as an MJO event encroaches on the Pacific.
vp200.GFS.anom.KELVIN.5S-5N.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The models tend to perform better in cases like this where there's a very robust and coherent MJO pulse in the eastern hemisphere, this large-scale circulation response is consistent w/ what you'd expect as an MJO event encroaches on the Pacific.
View attachment 3391
Click to expand...
If you have a second could you take a look at this? http://southernwx.com/community/threads/help-understanding-this-model-image.363/

Mods feel free to delete since this is borderline OT for the thread.
 
gotta love Texas... from snow to tornadoes to fire. Smoke is being seen 100 miles away from a fire west of Fort Worth.:confused:
 
What's so interesting is that despite the 3 big SE winter storms to date and the extreme SE cold of 12/31-1/20, the period Dec/Jan/first few days of Feb isn't going to average all that much below normal thanks to some lengthy very warm periods to counter it. So, this winter is liable to go down more as one of big ups and downs as opposed to consistently cold. But we still have to see what Feb overall may bring and how that impacts the DJF average.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top