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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

1300m said:
Up to 5" here just south of Wake Forest. My lifetime best is 7.5". Man what I'd give to break that but that's probably out of reach.
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You were all over it with this one too. I was here for the Jan 2000 one, so I’m pretty sure that will be a lifetime best.

Anyway, thanks for your analysis. Hopefully we can pick up another .5-1”.
 
1300m said:
Thanks, man. It was actually you who first jumped on this train. I was skeptical that what the Euro was depicting would actually happen, but what do you know, here we are in our best snow in a long time!
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Thanks man. I was just playing a hunch. It’s been a long time since I’ve hit the 4-5” mark. And we still have plenty of winter left! :)
 
Brick Tamland said:
Think it will make it up my way?
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Yea the band is currently moving thru Wake Forest right now, definitely worth going outside and looking at because it may be the last steady band for the event. We still have some snow to contend w/ underneath the ULL to our west after this goes by that will give about a trace to maybe an inch or so in a few isolated areas...
 
Rain Cold said:
You did a great job with this storm. Fishel was on air earlier saying that no model or data suggested anything close to 12”. They had a 4% chance of 4” or more up near the VA border two days ago. I understand probability forecasting, but I think it’s a double-edged sword in a way.

Anyway, I am approaching 4” in SE Wake. I guess we have a shot at 5 if the back edge stalls a bit.
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Thanks!! Yeah agreed, the probabilities from the WPC are generally underdispersive because they're comprised of a large range of NWP models which are also underdispsersive in their own right and possess their own biases, errors, etc. The chances were definitely much greater than 4% even a few days ago for 4"+ of snow near the VA border in spite of what many of the coarse resolution ensemble suites indicated.
 
Hmm that snow that's developed in Western SC...I noticed it's heading south (maybe a bit SE) and the HRRR wants to give me a little more light snow later on..
 
Shawn said:
Well, Western Midlands should be seeing accumulating snow through the next few hours. Things slowly getting white here in Lexington and heavier returns on the way.

Temperatures not a problem.
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getting a little light snow now in Cayce
 
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