• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

SD said:
If I lived north of a line from Texarkana ->oxford->florence->Chattanooga->Kingsport I'd be feeling good this morning. Along and north from shreveport->starkville->Birmingham->alpharetta->gsp->Clt->gso I'm feeling decent but hoping for the agreement and the minor changes. from Jackson->mgm->Augusta-cae->Fayetteville->rocky mount we need help
Click to expand...
I'd generally agree with that. It seems like no matter the model changes, the north central piedmont seems to be a good location
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: SD
OK. Other than the obvious that this is a look from the end of the NAM run, does this look not scream another round of overrunning past the initial SE 'storm'?
namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
OK. Other than the obvious that this is a look from the end of the NAM run, does this look not scream another round of overrunning past the initial SE 'storm'?
namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png
Click to expand...
Oh it's screams more than that. If the rest of the 12z suite is there at 84 hours good luck everyone
 
1300m said:
The 00z/06z EPS and 06z GEFS still show the three scenarios we've seen in various modeling over the past 24 hours: 1) mostly dry east of the apps with only a front end band west of the apps, 2) a warmer scenario with a coastal forming but cold press not enough except in the western Piedmont / Mountains east of the apps, and 3) there are still a handful of members on both ensembles that show the late blooming, explosive cyclogenesis solution that would favor the eastern Piedmont / Coastal Plain as cold gets wrapped into the system.

IMO, there's still time for it to go in any direction, but I definitely favor either 2 or 3.
Click to expand...
Nice summary. I’m solidly in the Option #2 camp for a forecast as of now. Main area of accumulating snow in foothills and mountains

Yeah to get this east, we need to press the cold boundary more early then go sharp with the wave late
 
Chazwin said:
Here’s the thing about the NAM at this range… it sucks at temperatures and precip, but it’s often very good at placement of features.
Click to expand...
I really want to agree with you on that, but I just can't fully. I think inside of 60 the NAM begins to stabilize with the synoptic scale features, but it's pretty erratic otherwise (and I'm not just talking about this event). But you can see it's really bouncing around the last 3 runs at h5. (I know this is 12z NAM and 6z GFS, but just showing how the 72 hour forecast of each has changed over the past 3 runs).

namconus_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend.gif

Compare the last 3 runs of the NAM to the GFS, and you can see how erratic it has been.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend (1).gif
 
1300m said:
I really want to agree with you on that, but I just can't fully. I think inside of 60 the NAM begins to stabilize with the synoptic scale features, but it's pretty erratic otherwise (and I'm not just talking about this event). But you can see it's really bouncing around the last 3 runs at h5. (I know this is 12z NAM and 6z GFS, but just showing how the 72 hour forecast of each has changed over the past 3 runs).

View attachment 141685

Compare the last 3 runs of the NAM to the GFS, and you can see how erratic it has been.

View attachment 141688
Click to expand...
Yeah I certainly wouldn’t trust it when it’s shuffled around like that. I do remember that in the 2nd storm of January 2022, the long range NAM was the first to identify that storm was going to be a bigger deal for the NC Piedmont in its H5 charts
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top