That's good to hear. I sure hope we can score big at some point and see the PNA rebound as well.The 12Z GEFS appears to bring the AO back down again late in the run and more than does the 0Z GEFS fwiw. Analogs favor it coming back down. So we'll see.
If we get a repeating pattern, with cold shots and some blocking.. up until mid Jan. I read something you said about the rest of Jan being normal. Well, we get some good winter weather being normal I'll take repeated shots of normal Jan weather in Dec, then take the normal Jan weather after that, lol. This is shaping up alright! If I can get something over the next few day from of being in the sweet spot for so long, this could be a banner year with two or three shots early, then normal after that, lol. TThe 12Z GEFS appears to bring the AO back down again late in the run and more than does the 0Z GEFS fwiw. Analogs favor it coming back down. So we'll see.
Great post, Larry! Was noticing much the same, and looking at the PNA which seems like it wants to stay on top of +; maybe we'll all get a nice treat from Santa, but, and as you say, stay tuned, it's a ways out there!Even the EPS, which has been and still is going more zonal than the GEFS late in the 6-10, now has a restrengthening Alaskan ridge as we get later into the 11-15. As a result, there is at hour 360 (on 12/22) an impressively strong signal for so far out in time of a strong Arctic high (1032 mb is quite strong for an ensemble of 50 members 15 days out) accompanied by 850s as cold as -26 C along the western shore of Hudson Bay moving southward toward the US as the -AO begins to restrengthen. What's extra notable about this is that this -26 C 850
MB air, which first shows up as sub -24 C 850s as early as 12/20 further north, is the coldest of any on the entire run in Canada and appears to
fed by a cross polar upper flow.
I'm paying extra close attention to this because analogs have insisted on a solid cold E US Dec with accompanying solid and persistent -AO as opposed to a Dec that is cold for only a 10 or so day period and then just craps out late. This run, along with the 12Z GEFS and GEPS, are saying cold will be back to start dominating much of the US starting in about 2 weeks and it could easily be even colder than what will occur over the next 10 days. So, any break in the current cold pattern, which is common, regardless, may very well be shortlived. The model runs will likely waver back and forth. But stay tuned as the analogs and now the models again are saying look out late month.
Welcome some thoughts on the weeklies. I wasn’t overly impressed with them after about day 10...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Euro weeklies pretty much put an end to winter after early January and the classical NINA torching begins by mid month. Eventually, this background state will catch up w/ us because Januarys usually arent cold here in a NINA, Decembers can be and Februarys are rarely near normal
Well lets hope that something is going to sneak in before the +PNA breaks down that I've been looking at on modeling. I get that we can get a reload, but as bad as Winter has been in recent years (especially here), I can't get too hopeful about it. It's like losing control of a golden egg and fumbling it off a roof top to lose the -NAO/+PNA combo before scoring.
Even the EPS, which has been and still is going more zonal than the GEFS late in the 6-10, now has a restrengthening Alaskan ridge as we get later into the 11-15. As a result, there is at hour 360 (on 12/22) an impressively strong signal for so far out in time of a strong Arctic high (1032 mb is quite strong for an ensemble of 50 members 15 days out) accompanied by 850s as cold as -26 C along the western shore of Hudson Bay moving southward toward the US as the -AO begins to restrengthen. What's extra notable about this is that this -26 C 850
MB air, which first shows up as sub -24 C 850s as early as 12/20 further north, is the coldest of any on the entire run in Canada and appears to
fed by a cross polar upper flow.
I'm paying extra close attention to this because analogs have insisted on a solid cold E US Dec with accompanying solid and persistent -AO as opposed to a Dec that is cold for only a 10 or so day period and then just craps out late. This run, along with the 12Z GEFS and GEPS, are saying cold will be back to start dominating much of the US starting in about 2 weeks and it could easily be even colder than what will occur over the next 10 days. So, any break in the current cold pattern, which is common, regardless, may very well be shortlived. The model runs will likely waver back and forth. But stay tuned as the analogs and now the models again are saying look out late month.
How well did the EPS handle, in advance, the current cold we are experiencing compared to what is now being forecasted for late December?Well, what do you know. Not only is the 0Z EPS backing up the above referenced 12Z EPS change back to a cold pattern, but it is even more emphatic! Make no mistake about it that it is reestablishing a very strong Alaskan/far E Pac ridge, which gets started around 12/20 and is quite strong by the end of the run. As a result of this, there's cross polar flow at the end of the run and the coldest air on the planet anomalywise by far covering nearly all of Canada and moving into the N Rockies/Plains as well as the upper MW on 12/22. There's also a restrengtheing of the -AO. There is once again a 1032 mb high in NW Canada. Remember that this is hour 360 of a 50 member ensemble run showing this strong of a high. It is then poised to move much further down into the US with eyes quite possibly on the SE US by no later than Christmas. I'm officially repumped like I was in late Nov in advance of the current cold.
People put WAY to much faith in those hourly model runs. The 23 hour hrrr is like the 360 hour GFS...