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Tropical Hurricane Gert

Bye bye.... although it may be a touch closer than the 0z run, weak system too
ecmwf_mslpa_watl_6.png
 
EPS still shows development and OTS... notice a naked swirl on vis sat earlier that now has some storms firing right over top, just enough to keep it "alive" until it can reach more favorable environment for some development
 
GaWx said:
I thought the same way until I later realized this is short for "Gertrude."

Edit: Then why not name it "Gertrude"?
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Hmmm this is interesting...
"Gert is a mainly masculine given name (short form of Gerard) with some female bearers (short for Gertrude). [1] Pronunciation is typically /ˈχɛrt/ in Afrikaans and Dutch, /ˈgɛrt/ in Danish, German, and Swedish, and /ˈɡɜːrt/ in English.

Since 1993 no one in Sweden has been baptised as Gert according to the Swedish Bureau of Census,[citation needed] so the name is becoming increasingly rare. In 2010 around 12,000 in Sweden had the name as their first name according to the same source. Gert is most common in Sweden among males over 50 years of age. Around 400 females in Sweden have Gert as their first name according to the Swedish Bureau of Census."
 
With the northeastern convection starting to wane it'll be interesting to see what the new convection near what looks to be a LLC can do tonight.

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I just checked the ATCF, some memebers are bringing in 99L close to the SE coast but still off shore.

One memeber brings in 99L just off of the NC coast up through far southeastern NJ. I wouldn't say for sure the EC is out of the clear at this moment. It will be interesting to see the spaghetti plots look like once the wave is southeast of the Bahama's.



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Showed some life overnight and still hanging on this morning, back up to 50% also..... either way all signs point to this staying well offshore. But hopefully it can get named at some point, I know one texan that would be thrilled to see Gert out of the way Lol
 
Wind shear has been dropping like a rock over 99L the past 24 hours, now down to ~ 5 knots... Definitely going to be a window of opportunity for TCG the next 36-48 hours while shear remains relatively low in advance of a burgeoning subtropical ridge axis that will attempt to impart increasing northerly-northeasterly shear onto 99L as early as late Sunday...
wg8shr.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wind shear has been dropping like a rock over 99L the past 24 hours, now down to ~ 5 knots... Definitely going to be a window of opportunity for TCG the next 36-48 hours while shear remains relatively low in advance of a burgeoning subtropical ridge axis that will attempt to impart increasing northerly-northeasterly shear onto 99L as early as late Sunday...
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Certainly not as much as the HWRF showed at 12Z. Lol what an outlier. It seems to have spin in it, so it's survived quite a lot so far.
99L_intensity_latest.png

NAM also says bring it on, but it's just a mesoscale model.
nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png
 
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