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Tropical Tropical Storm Cindy

I know it's early and lots of uncertainty, but local mets are saying to not expect ANYTHING from this in my area, not even rain!
 
Let's all take a moment to lol at the obviously wrong NAM. Would be horrible if true, but it's not going to be that strong. I'm fact, several mesoscale models blow this thing stronger than global models do, or faster.
nam3km_mslp_wind_scus_60.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Let's all take a moment to lol at the obviously wrong NAM. Would be horrible if true, but it's not going to be that strong.
nam3km_mslp_wind_scus_60.png
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Yeah I saw that this morning but decided not to post it.... this belongs in banter. Lol jk, obviously anything can happen but ummm no.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I know it's early and lots of uncertainty, but local mets are saying to not expect ANYTHING from this in my area, not even rain!
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Get a boat then lol and please don't say things like that . JHS won't be able to handle that idea lol


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ForsythSnow said:
It's there for sure, and convection appears to be catching up to it. If it does, this thing will look way better later today. Otherwise, hopefully they fly in today. We need to know what it's doing lol.
GANIM2_Gerrv25.jpg
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Animating that image reveals that there does appear to be some wind shear in that location (upper level clouds moving NNE, while lower level clouds moving W). I'm unsure how long that will last though, or if it will have any significant impact on its ability to maintain convection over the center.

Animation link (time-sensitive): https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-b...uality=100&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=15
 
NWMSGuy said:
Would this ultimately depend on strength and who is south and east of the Northeast quadrant of the system?
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Strength seems to be irrelevant. They were discussing the low level shear in response to the flow at 850mb. But yes his would be for areas east of the center . This was their post

Widespread rain is looking quite likely for Thursday as the low
pressure envelope makes its move inland. While the GFS and ECMWF
are several hundred miles apart with the track of the actual low
center, both models indicate an expansive wind field on its
eastern side. A corridor of 35-45 kt flow at 850mb could yield
substantial low-level shear and a threat for tornadoes on
Thursday. This threat could be introduced into the HWO, but will
require future model agreement and consistency.


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^^^^^ Unfortunately there's some peeps in Ga, SC and NC that would be left out with any of those tracks..... which seems very plausible
 
metwannabe said:
^^^^^ Unfortunately there's some peeps in Ga, SC and NC that would be left out with any of those tracks..... which seems very plausible
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Except that the moisture plume will stretch far eastward, so SC and GA and later on NC would get tons of rain. So long as you look at the flow of moisture you will see that us out here will still get tons of rain. The GFS from this morning seems to be a good example.
gfs_apcpn_seus_20.png
 
metwannabe said:
^^^^^ Unfortunately there's some peeps in Ga, SC and NC that would be left out with any of those tracks..... which seems very plausible
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I totally disagree . The fetch of moisture is massive . Any of those tracks will work . Look I just need JHS and SD to receive some rain .
4c30fe47f093e29c811be60b00dd747a.jpg



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ForsythSnow said:
Except that the moisture plume will stretch far eastward, so SC and GA and later on NC would get tons of rain. So long as you look at the flow of moisture you will see that us out here will still get tons of rain. The GFS from this morning seems to be a good example.
gfs_apcpn_seus_20.png
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Saying they would be "left out" poor choice of words, however if it develops and tracks that far inland the heaviest rain or tons of rain will be along and east of the track. I definitely should have left Ga out of the statement but the map you posted there shows tons of rain along the coast into Al & Ga and if you continue out further it does increase some up this way but nothing like along the track.... Many variables here including how it interacts with a stalled out front, when it develops, where it goes, etc and I know how to follow the flow of moisture. I'm no expert never claimed to be but pretty sure I've followed storms longer than you've been on this earth. Part of my comment also was for the purposes of a few guys on here who've missed out on tons of rain lately when everything pointed to them getting it.... it's weather, it's why it's fun to watch and follow along.
 
Storm5 said:
I totally disagree . The fetch of moisture is massive . Any of those tracks will work . Look I just need JHS and SD to receive some rain .
4c30fe47f093e29c811be60b00dd747a.jpg



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I totally disagree too, I totally disagree with myself most of the time Lol.... glad I could invoke some good discussion
 
Those tracks would still be ok in NC, SC, and GA as long as the system stays disorganized. A more tightly wound up system would indeed mean most areas southeast of I-85 in the 3 states would miss out. Upslope flow alone would give areas northwest of that interstate good rains unless we happened to be under a closed upper ridge of high pressure.
 
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