• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

It's in the document forecast. I clicked on the link you posted, then clicked the 2018 atlantic seasonal forecast above the pacific one. I looked through the document and noticed that on the bottom of page 2.

Thanks. Weird. On my phone, I see only page 1 for some reason. When I get back to my laptop, I'll see if I can get to page 2.
 
I hope the TSR forecast will be added to the wiki because they certainly deserve it based on their good overall record of their near 20 years of forecasts. I guess any member can add to the wiki?

Also, is the NOAA forecast really a forecast?

  • NOAA (10-16 storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 1-4 major)

    Their ranges are very wide! MH 1-4? That goes from quiet to active! At least TSR, CSU, and TWC put out a specific forecast.
Sounds like a JB forecast!
 
Only 1 tropical storm near the Lesser Antilles? That's sounds weird and their numbers being 9 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major seem too low. They are the only organization that's calling for a well below normal season. Not sure how they have done the past 20 years or so compared to the others.

OK, once I got to my laptop, I was able to see the rest of the TSR pages including the Lesser Antilles landfall forecast of only 1 TS and no Hs. So, 1/0/0. Do I think 1/0/0 is realistic? Yes. Here's why:

- Since 1995, the average # of L. Ant. landfalls has only been 1.6/0.7/0.3. So, 1/0/0 isn't that far off from the longterm average.
- Since 1995, 8 of the 23 years had 1/0/0 or less: 2016, 2013, 2009, 2006, 2003, 2002, 2001, and 1997 with 2006, 2003, and 1997 at 0/0/0. So, 1/0/0 or less isn't rare at all since it has occurred about 1 every 3 seasons even during the active era that started in 1995.
- Of those 8, only 4 were oncoming El Nino's. Even one of the 3 0/0/0 years, 2003, wasn't an oncoming El Nino. So, although an oncoming El Nino certainly raises the chance for a very quiet L. Ant. year (4 of the 7 El Nino's were 1/0/0 or quieter there vs only 4 of the other 16), it isn't required. Regardless, there's a higher than average chance there will be El Nino by winter.
- Keeping in mind that May Eurosip forecasts have done pretty well overall since records start in 2008, look at this May 2018 Eurosip forecast for ASO, which has the highest SLPs vs norms in the Caribbean:

Eurosip0518SLPfor ASO.png
 
OK, once I got to my laptop, I was able to see the rest of the TSR pages including the Lesser Antilles landfall forecast of only 1 TS and no Hs. So, 1/0/0. Do I think 1/0/0 is realistic? Yes. Here's why:

- Since 1995, the average # of L. Ant. landfalls has only been 1.6/0.7/0.3. So, 1/0/0 isn't that far off from the longterm average.
- Since 1995, 8 of the 23 years had 1/0/0 or less: 2016, 2013, 2009, 2006, 2003, 2002, 2001, and 1997 with 2006, 2003, and 1997 at 0/0/0. So, 1/0/0 or less isn't rare at all since it has occurred about 1 every 3 seasons even during the active era that started in 1995.
- Of those 8, only 4 were oncoming El Nino's. Even one of the 3 0/0/0 years, 2003, wasn't an oncoming El Nino. So, although an oncoming El Nino certainly raises the chance for a very quiet L. Ant. year (4 of the 7 El Nino's were 1/0/0 or quieter there vs only 4 of the other 16), it isn't required. Regardless, there's a higher than average chance there will be El Nino by winter.
- Keeping in mind that May Eurosip forecasts have done pretty well overall since records start in 2008, look at this May 2018 Eurosip forecast for ASO, which has the highest SLPs vs norms in the Caribbean:

View attachment 5347
Seems more common than I thought. Thanks for the info! Probably going to be a close to home season, but even with lower numbers, Carribean storms can be bad. If we have no storms near PR this year and the Virgin islands, that would be great as they are still recovering from last year.
 
11/5/1
~~~~~~~

May 1/0/0

June 0/0/0

July 2/1/0

August 4/2/0

September 3/2/1

October 1/0/0

November 0/0/0
 
Back
Top