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Severe 2024 Severe Discussion

Shaggy said:
Not expecting much severe tomorrow but if something can get going it could need watching. Some veering evident in soundings and a tornado or 2 would t surprise me in coastal areas of SC maybe NC.



Despite limited insolation due to thick clouds, unstable
conditions should develop Tuesday through advection of warm,
humid air at or just above the surface. GFS forecast soundings
suggest up to 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE could develop. Bulk shear
across the 0-6 km layer of 30-40 knots is sufficient to support
organized storms, and curvature in low level wind profiles
suggests enough helicity may be present to create a "non-zero"
tornado potential. HREF updraft helicity ensembles suggest this
threat may be highest Tuesday morning south of Florence and
Conway. The more widespread threat could be locally heavy
rainfall as up to three inches is forecast (storm total) in the
Georgetown area.
Click to expand...
Wind profiles were there for some tornados last Tuesday and after all the severe reports were surveyed there is now a total of 7 tornados

 
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